Key Research Areas
The Transformation of the Global Economy in Response to the Shocks of 2021–2023
The COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath, along with the armed conflict in Ukraine, are profoundly reshaping the international economic landscape. Competitive advantages that had developed over previous decades are shifting, as are the nature of relations between major powers. Globalisation is being transformed – and in some areas, brought to a halt. The developed world is seeing a return to an era of high inflation; debt crises are spreading; new threats to financial stability are emerging. At the same time, digital technologies and the green transition are redefining key sectors of the economy. Inequality is reaching critical levels within leading countries. Meanwhile, the global community continues to seek pathways to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and addressing the climate crisis. The trajectory of these transformative processes will be a central focus of research in the coming years.
Selected Publications:
1) Bobylev S. N., Golyashev A. V., Grigoryev L. M., Gurvich E. T., Ivanov S. F., Ivashchenko A. S., Kashin V. B., Makarov I. A., Makarova E. A., Pavlyushina V. A., Podrugina A. V., Salikhov M. R., Sinyavskaya O. V., Tabakh A. V., Tyutyuryukov V. N., Chulok A. A. The World Economy in a Time of Great Shocks [Мировая экономика в период больших потрясений] / Eds.: L. M. Grigoryev, A. A. Kurdin, I. A. Makarov. Moscow: INFRA-M, 2022. (in Russ.)
2) Makarov I. A. Taxonomy of Trade Barriers: Five Types of Protectionism // Contemporary World Economy. 2023. Vol. 1. No. 1. P. 74-94.
Consumption-Based vs Production-Based Emissions
The current international climate regime is based on accounting for emissions produced within a country's territory – that is, production-based emissions. This allows countries to achieve carbon neutrality on paper by outsourcing their carbon-intensive production and importing the corresponding goods from abroad. By contrast, consumption-based emissions account for the greenhouse gases emitted during the production of goods consumed within a given country, regardless of where those emissions physically occur. This approach is particularly important, as it fosters dialogue between exporters and importers of carbon-intensive products, opens up new pathways for decarbonisation, and helps link climate action more closely to other sustainable development goals, especially those concerning poverty and inequality.
Selected Publications:
1) Makarov I. A., Alatas S. Toward Consumption-Based GHG Emissions Accounting: From Calculation to Policy-Making // International Organisations Research Journal. 2024. Vol. 19. No. 1. P-85-105.
2) Makarov I. A., Alatas S. Production- and consumption-based emissions in carbon exporters and importers: A large panel data analysis for the EKC hypothesis // Applied Energy. 2024. Vol. 363. Article 123063.
3) Grigoryev L. M., Makarov I. A., Sokolova A. K., Pavlyushina V. A., Stepanov I. A. Climate Change and Inequality: How to Solve These Problems Jointly? // International Organisations Research Journal. 2020. No. 1. P. 7-30.
Global Decarbonization and Its Impact on Russia
Russia is a country heavily reliant on the export of hydrocarbons and carbon-intensive products, that makes it vulnerable to climate policy measures adopted by its trading partners. These measures can reduce demand for Russia’s key export commodities and create new market entry barriers for Russian exporters. Monitoring the climate policies of partner countries, as well as assessing their impact on Russian exports and GDP, is a critical theoretical and practical task.
See the BRICSClimate database on BRICS countries' climate policies
Selected Publications:
1) Makarov I. A., Chen H., Paltsev S. Impacts of climate change policies worldwide on the Russian economy // Climate Policy. 2020. Vol. 20. No. 10. P. 1242-1256.
2) Makarov I. A., Besley D. J., Dudu H., Boratynski J. S., Chepellev M., Golub Strukova E., Nemova V., Stepanov I. A. Russia and Global Green Transition : Risks and Opportunities. Washington : World Bank Group, 2021.
The Specifics of Carbon Regulation in Fossil Fuel-Exporting Countries
Compared to fossil fuel-importing nations, hydrocarbon-exporting countries have significantly fewer incentives to implement conventional forms of climate policy, particularly carbon pricing. Instead, climate strategies in these economies must be adapted to the specific structure of their resource-dependent models. These alternative approaches may include accounting for both production- and consumption-based emissions, applying an implicit carbon price, implementing fiscal manoeuvres within the energy sector, and making extensive use of carbon offsets. Defining such tailored policy instruments and exploring avenues for cooperation among fossil fuel-exporting countries represents an important area of research.
Selected Publications:
1) Makarov I. A., Besley D. J., Dudu H., Boratynski J. S., Chepellev M., Golub Strukova E., Nemova V., Stepanov I. A. Russia and Global Green Transition : Risks and Opportunities. Washington : World Bank Group, 2021.
2) Makarov I. A. Does resource abundance require special approaches to climate policies? The case of Russia // Climatic Change. 2022. No. 170. Article 3.
3) Stepanov I. A., Makarov I. A. Greenhouse gas Emissions Regulation in Fossil Fuels Exporting Countries: Opportunities and Challenges for Russia // Post-Communist Economies. 2022. Vol. 34. No. 7. P. 916-943.
The Impact of Climate Change on Russian Regions
Climate change has a significant impact on Russia, but this impact is unevenly distributed across the country’s vast territory. Different regions face different types of climate risks. In the context of developing adaptation programs, it is crucial to prioritize adaptation measures spatially — this includes mapping climate risks and ranking regions according to the urgency of adaptation to specific climate hazards.
Selected Publications:
1) Chernokulsky A. V., Makarov I. A., Aniskina T.A., Chistikov M. N., Kraev G. N., Kurichev N. K., Sheludkov A. V., Smolovik E. V., Vinogradova V. V., Yudova O. A. Heuristic relative assessment of climate risks in Russian regions // Science of the Total Environment. 2025. Vol. 987. P. 1–21.
2) Макаров И. А., Чернокульский А. В. Влиние изменения климата на экономику России: рейтинг регионов по необходимости адаптации // Журнал новой экономической ассоциации. 2023. Т. 61. № 4. С. 145-202.
3) Makarov I. A., Chernokulsky A. Climate risks in Russia: Rating of regions by need for adaptation // Izvestia, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physic. 2024. Vol. 60. No. 3. P. 362–731.
Climate Cooperation within the BRICS Countries
The BRICS nations hold the key to resolving the global climate challenge. They are not only among the world’s largest emitters of greenhouse gases, but also represent the first group of countries attempting to transition from low to middle and high per capita incomes in an era defined by climate crisis. If this transition simply replicates the growth models and consumption patterns of Western countries, the world will barrel toward climate catastrophe. However, if BRICS nations succeed in developing alternative and effective models of economic development, these could serve as a blueprint for other countries across the Global South. This is why it is critically important that BRICS, as a coalition, be used as a platform for forging a shared understanding of the climate threat and a unified approach to managing the global transition to low-carbon development.
See the BRICSClimate database on BRICS countries' climate policies
Selected Publications:
1) Makarov I., Khlebnova A., Shuranova A. Towards Global Green Leadership: Priorities for BRICS Cooperation on Climate Change. Moscow: HSE University, International and Comparative Law Research Center, 2024.
2) Makarov I. A., Alatas S. Toward Consumption-Based GHG Emissions Accounting: From Calculation to Policy-Making // International Organisations Research Journal. 2024. Vol. 19. No. 1. P-85-105.
3) Makarov I. A., Suslov D. V., Stepanov I. A., Serova D. A. Turning to Nature: Russia’s New Environmental Policy Amid the Green Transformation of the Global Economy and Politics [Поворот к природе: новая экологическая политика России в условиях зелёной трансформации мировой экономики и политики] / Ed. and project lead: S. A. Karaganov. Moscow: Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2021. (in Russ.)
Critical Metals and Minerals
Many of the technologies essential for the global green transition – including electric vehicles and equipment for wind and solar energy – require large quantities of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium, and rare earth elements. Reserves of many of these resources are distributed extremely unevenly across the globe, and processing capacities are even more concentrated. This makes critical metals and minerals a strategic raw material, and simultaneously represents a significant constraint on green development.
Selected Publications:
Makarov I. A., Baranov G. Yu., Chistikov M. N. Scenarios of Development for NonFerrous Metal Marketsamid the Spread of Alternative Fuel Vehicles [Как транспорт на альтернативном топливе трансформирует рынки цветных металлов: сценарный подход] // Foresight and STI Governance. 2025. Vol. 19 No. 2. P. 28–41. (in Russ.)
Russia’s Pivot to the East
The idea of Russia’s pivot to the East was first articulated in the early 2010s. While there have been some achievements, for many years progress was hampered by the inertia of the political elite, as well as material, regulatory, and infrastructural constraints. The sanctions imposed in 2014, and especially the full-scale confrontation with the West beginning in 2022, have made this pivot both inevitable and non-negotiable. However, the models for the development of Siberia and the Russian Far East, as well as the frameworks for building economic relations with Asian countries – whether bilaterally or within broader initiatives such as Greater Eurasia – have yet to be fully developed.
Selected Publications:
1) Makarov I. A., Makarova E. A., Bordachev T. V., Kanaev E. A., Litvinova Y. O., Likhacheva A. B., Pestich A. S., Pyatachkova A. S., Sokolova A. K., Stepanov I. A., Shcherbakova A. V., Karaganov S. A. Pivot to the East: Development of Siberia and the Russian Far East Amid Strengthening of the Asian Vector in Russia’s Foreign Policy [Поворот на Восток. Развитие Сибири и Дальнего Востока в условиях усиления азиатского вектора внешней политики России] / Project lead: I. A. Makarov; Editor-in-chief: I. A. Makarov; Academic ed.: E. A. Makarova. Moscow: Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2016. (in Russ.)
2) Makarov I. A., Barabanov O. N., Bordachev T. V., Kanaev E. A., Larin V. L., Ryzhkov V. A. To the Great Ocean – 2, or Russia’s Leap Toward Asia [К Великому Океану - 2, или российский рывок к Азии] / Project lead: S. A. Karaganov. Moscow: Valdai International Discussion Club, 2014. (in Russ.)
3) Likhacheva A. B., Makarov I. A., Pestich A. S. Building a Common Eurasian Infrastructure: Agenda for the Eurasian Economic Union // International Organisations Research Journal. 2018. Vol. 13. No. 3. P. 97-112.
4) Makarov I. A., Sokolova A. K. The Eurasian Economic Union and the Silk Road Economic Belt: Opportunities for Russia // International Organisations Research Journal. 2016. Vol. 11. No. 2. P. 40-47.
5) Makarov I. A. Accelerated Development of the Russian Far East: A View through the New International Trade Theory and New Economic Geography // Russia in Global Affairs. 2018. Vol. 16. No. 3. P. 110-129.
The Transformation of the Global Economy in Response to the Shocks of 2021–2023
The COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath, along with the armed conflict in Ukraine, are profoundly reshaping the international economic landscape. Competitive advantages that had developed over previous decades are shifting, as are the nature of relations between major powers. Globalisation is being transformed – and in some areas, brought to a halt. The developed world is seeing a return to an era of high inflation; debt crises are spreading; new threats to financial stability are emerging. At the same time, digital technologies and the green transition are redefining key sectors of the economy. Inequality is reaching critical levels within leading countries. Meanwhile, the global community continues to seek pathways to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and addressing the climate crisis. The trajectory of these transformative processes will be a central focus of research in the coming years.
Selected Publications:
1) Bobylev S. N., Golyashev A. V., Grigoryev L. M., Gurvich E. T., Ivanov S. F., Ivashchenko A. S., Kashin V. B., Makarov I. A., Makarova E. A., Pavlyushina V. A., Podrugina A. V., Salikhov M. R., Sinyavskaya O. V., Tabakh A. V., Tyutyuryukov V. N., Chulok A. A. The World Economy in a Time of Great Shocks [Мировая экономика в период больших потрясений] / Eds.: L. M. Grigoryev, A. A. Kurdin, I. A. Makarov. Moscow: INFRA-M, 2022. (in Russ.)
2) Makarov I. A. Taxonomy of Trade Barriers: Five Types of Protectionism // Contemporary World Economy. 2023. Vol. 1. No. 1. P. 74-94.
Consumption-Based vs Production-Based Emissions
The current international climate regime is based on accounting for emissions produced within a country's territory – that is, production-based emissions. This allows countries to achieve carbon neutrality on paper by outsourcing their carbon-intensive production and importing the corresponding goods from abroad. By contrast, consumption-based emissions account for the greenhouse gases emitted during the production of goods consumed within a given country, regardless of where those emissions physically occur. This approach is particularly important, as it fosters dialogue between exporters and importers of carbon-intensive products, opens up new pathways for decarbonisation, and helps link climate action more closely to other sustainable development goals, especially those concerning poverty and inequality.
Selected Publications:
1) Makarov I. A., Alatas S. Toward Consumption-Based GHG Emissions Accounting: From Calculation to Policy-Making // International Organisations Research Journal. 2024. Vol. 19. No. 1. P-85-105.
2) Makarov I. A., Alatas S. Production- and consumption-based emissions in carbon exporters and importers: A large panel data analysis for the EKC hypothesis // Applied Energy. 2024. Vol. 363. Article 123063.
3) Grigoryev L. M., Makarov I. A., Sokolova A. K., Pavlyushina V. A., Stepanov I. A. Climate Change and Inequality: How to Solve These Problems Jointly? // International Organisations Research Journal. 2020. No. 1. P. 7-30.
Global Decarbonization and Its Impact on Russia
Russia is a country heavily reliant on the export of hydrocarbons and carbon-intensive products, that makes it vulnerable to climate policy measures adopted by its trading partners. These measures can reduce demand for Russia’s key export commodities and create new market entry barriers for Russian exporters. Monitoring the climate policies of partner countries, as well as assessing their impact on Russian exports and GDP, is a critical theoretical and practical task.
See the BRICSClimate database on BRICS countries' climate policies
Selected Publications:
1) Makarov I. A., Chen H., Paltsev S. Impacts of climate change policies worldwide on the Russian economy // Climate Policy. 2020. Vol. 20. No. 10. P. 1242-1256.
2) Makarov I. A., Besley D. J., Dudu H., Boratynski J. S., Chepellev M., Golub Strukova E., Nemova V., Stepanov I. A. Russia and Global Green Transition : Risks and Opportunities. Washington : World Bank Group, 2021.
The Specifics of Carbon Regulation in Fossil Fuel-Exporting Countries
Compared to fossil fuel-importing nations, hydrocarbon-exporting countries have significantly fewer incentives to implement conventional forms of climate policy, particularly carbon pricing. Instead, climate strategies in these economies must be adapted to the specific structure of their resource-dependent models. These alternative approaches may include accounting for both production- and consumption-based emissions, applying an implicit carbon price, implementing fiscal manoeuvres within the energy sector, and making extensive use of carbon offsets. Defining such tailored policy instruments and exploring avenues for cooperation among fossil fuel-exporting countries represents an important area of research.
Selected Publications:
1) Makarov I. A., Besley D. J., Dudu H., Boratynski J. S., Chepellev M., Golub Strukova E., Nemova V., Stepanov I. A. Russia and Global Green Transition : Risks and Opportunities. Washington : World Bank Group, 2021.
2) Makarov I. A. Does resource abundance require special approaches to climate policies? The case of Russia // Climatic Change. 2022. No. 170. Article 3.
3) Stepanov I. A., Makarov I. A. Greenhouse gas Emissions Regulation in Fossil Fuels Exporting Countries: Opportunities and Challenges for Russia // Post-Communist Economies. 2022. Vol. 34. No. 7. P. 916-943.
The Impact of Climate Change on Russian Regions
Climate change has a significant impact on Russia, but this impact is unevenly distributed across the country’s vast territory. Different regions face different types of climate risks. In the context of developing adaptation programs, it is crucial to prioritize adaptation measures spatially — this includes mapping climate risks and ranking regions according to the urgency of adaptation to specific climate hazards.
Selected Publications:
1) Chernokulsky A. V., Makarov I. A., Aniskina T.A., Chistikov M. N., Kraev G. N., Kurichev N. K., Sheludkov A. V., Smolovik E. V., Vinogradova V. V., Yudova O. A. Heuristic relative assessment of climate risks in Russian regions // Science of the Total Environment. 2025. Vol. 987. P. 1–21.
2) Макаров И. А., Чернокульский А. В. Влиние изменения климата на экономику России: рейтинг регионов по необходимости адаптации // Журнал новой экономической ассоциации. 2023. Т. 61. № 4. С. 145-202.
3) Makarov I. A., Chernokulsky A. Climate risks in Russia: Rating of regions by need for adaptation // Izvestia, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physic. 2024. Vol. 60. No. 3. P. 362–731.
Climate Cooperation within the BRICS Countries
The BRICS nations hold the key to resolving the global climate challenge. They are not only among the world’s largest emitters of greenhouse gases, but also represent the first group of countries attempting to transition from low to middle and high per capita incomes in an era defined by climate crisis. If this transition simply replicates the growth models and consumption patterns of Western countries, the world will barrel toward climate catastrophe. However, if BRICS nations succeed in developing alternative and effective models of economic development, these could serve as a blueprint for other countries across the Global South. This is why it is critically important that BRICS, as a coalition, be used as a platform for forging a shared understanding of the climate threat and a unified approach to managing the global transition to low-carbon development.
See the BRICSClimate database on BRICS countries' climate policies
Selected Publications:
1) Makarov I., Khlebnova A., Shuranova A. Towards Global Green Leadership: Priorities for BRICS Cooperation on Climate Change. Moscow: HSE University, International and Comparative Law Research Center, 2024.
2) Makarov I. A., Alatas S. Toward Consumption-Based GHG Emissions Accounting: From Calculation to Policy-Making // International Organisations Research Journal. 2024. Vol. 19. No. 1. P-85-105.
3) Makarov I. A., Suslov D. V., Stepanov I. A., Serova D. A. Turning to Nature: Russia’s New Environmental Policy Amid the Green Transformation of the Global Economy and Politics [Поворот к природе: новая экологическая политика России в условиях зелёной трансформации мировой экономики и политики] / Ed. and project lead: S. A. Karaganov. Moscow: Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2021. (in Russ.)
Critical Metals and Minerals
Many of the technologies essential for the global green transition – including electric vehicles and equipment for wind and solar energy – require large quantities of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium, and rare earth elements. Reserves of many of these resources are distributed extremely unevenly across the globe, and processing capacities are even more concentrated. This makes critical metals and minerals a strategic raw material, and simultaneously represents a significant constraint on green development.
Selected Publications:
Makarov I. A., Baranov G. Yu., Chistikov M. N. Scenarios of Development for NonFerrous Metal Marketsamid the Spread of Alternative Fuel Vehicles [Как транспорт на альтернативном топливе трансформирует рынки цветных металлов: сценарный подход] // Foresight and STI Governance. 2025. Vol. 19 No. 2. P. 28–41. (in Russ.)
Russia’s Pivot to the East
The idea of Russia’s pivot to the East was first articulated in the early 2010s. While there have been some achievements, for many years progress was hampered by the inertia of the political elite, as well as material, regulatory, and infrastructural constraints. The sanctions imposed in 2014, and especially the full-scale confrontation with the West beginning in 2022, have made this pivot both inevitable and non-negotiable. However, the models for the development of Siberia and the Russian Far East, as well as the frameworks for building economic relations with Asian countries – whether bilaterally or within broader initiatives such as Greater Eurasia – have yet to be fully developed.
Selected Publications:
1) Makarov I. A., Makarova E. A., Bordachev T. V., Kanaev E. A., Litvinova Y. O., Likhacheva A. B., Pestich A. S., Pyatachkova A. S., Sokolova A. K., Stepanov I. A., Shcherbakova A. V., Karaganov S. A. Pivot to the East: Development of Siberia and the Russian Far East Amid Strengthening of the Asian Vector in Russia’s Foreign Policy [Поворот на Восток. Развитие Сибири и Дальнего Востока в условиях усиления азиатского вектора внешней политики России] / Project lead: I. A. Makarov; Editor-in-chief: I. A. Makarov; Academic ed.: E. A. Makarova. Moscow: Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2016. (in Russ.)
2) Makarov I. A., Barabanov O. N., Bordachev T. V., Kanaev E. A., Larin V. L., Ryzhkov V. A. To the Great Ocean – 2, or Russia’s Leap Toward Asia [К Великому Океану - 2, или российский рывок к Азии] / Project lead: S. A. Karaganov. Moscow: Valdai International Discussion Club, 2014. (in Russ.)
3) Likhacheva A. B., Makarov I. A., Pestich A. S. Building a Common Eurasian Infrastructure: Agenda for the Eurasian Economic Union // International Organisations Research Journal. 2018. Vol. 13. No. 3. P. 97-112.
4) Makarov I. A., Sokolova A. K. The Eurasian Economic Union and the Silk Road Economic Belt: Opportunities for Russia // International Organisations Research Journal. 2016. Vol. 11. No. 2. P. 40-47.
5) Makarov I. A. Accelerated Development of the Russian Far East: A View through the New International Trade Theory and New Economic Geography // Russia in Global Affairs. 2018. Vol. 16. No. 3. P. 110-129.
© Игорь Макаров. Все права защищены
